Rob wrote:Marky Mark wrote:Stag95 wrote:I think we’d get more of an increase than that. Looking at League 1, Burton, Derby, Ipswich, Lincoln, MK, Port Vale, Pompy and Wednesday could all be close to selllouts.
The average attendance of our last season in League One (4,800) was lower than our average attendance last year - that season had QPR, Bristol City, Cardiff, Chesterfield, Notts County, Huddersfield, Barnsley, Peterborough in it. The following season average was 5,200 - so we get a higher attendance when we are doing well in League Two than we do when we dont do well in League One. The following season the average was 4,100.
There are patterns to our attendances (averages):
Doing well in League 2: 4,900 (DF play off season), early 5,000's (03/04 and 21/22)
Doing poorly in League One: 4,800 (2002/3)
Treading water in League 2: 3,000 - 4,000 (2013-2018)
Poor in League 2: 2,800 (relegation season)
Theoretical - middle of the road in League One: 5,800 (doing well +15% like Wycombe)
I can definitely see why we're not adding 2,000+ capacity to an 8,000 capacity stadium at the moment when our average gates have never been more than 60% of it's existing capacity.
Firstly using previous attendance figures is clearly flawed given the unprecedented season ticket sales this summer. Secondly the increase in capacity isn't just for home fans. Thirdly this isn't just about economics, it's about having a 3 sided ground which is an embarrassment to the club. Fourth a new stand will ease congestion in other areas, leading to higher sales in the kiosks. Fifth, grants will help the finances of building a simple safe standing stand, had we done this ten years ago it would probably have paid for itself by now.. Finally, if we have a good season not having done the stand will cost the club hundreds of thousands in lost revenue.
We will be locking home fans out next season if we challenge and must future proof now, sadly it's too late for the coming season.
Rob, these have all been dubunked.
Previous attendance figures are fairly robust, they point to attendance ceilings at almost all levels of where we've been for the last 20+ years. Definitely more robust than hoping and guessing.
Firstly: More season tickets doesn't naturally equate to higher attendances, the only thing it certainly means is more up front cash for the club. How many of the 4,000 season ticket holders didn't attend a match last season? We've never averaged over 5,500 whichever league we've been in in the last 40 years, whether we've sold 0 season tickets or 4,000 season tickets so the additional season tickets are most likely coming from within the existing supporter base. The 1,200 additional season ticket holders wont translate to 1,200 additional supporters, 100 at the most. I'm giving the club less money than I did last season, I'd imagine most are. Some are already talking about sharing season tickets.
Secondly: It doesn't matter who the increased capacity is for if we've never averaged over 5,500 in an 8,000 capacity stadium. Yes we might sell out once or twice, but we might also get 84 away fans. It balances itself out.
Thirdly: Economics doesn't matter if it's someone else's money.
Fourthly: Will spreading existing fans out into more space generate enough additional kiosk income to pay for the extra overheads to run the extra space, not including the £1m+ to build. The current challenges are about crowd management, not capacity.
Fifth: Putting money into developing the Bish 10 years ago would likely have come at the expense of funding promotion out of the conference. Given that our attendances are still in line with what we'd expect them to be v's our league ladder position it is likely that it would still be a liability on our balance sheet, with little incremental benefit, meaning that Clough has less leeway in the transfer market today.
Finally: Having a Bishop St stand would not make hundreds of thousands of additional revenue per season. In League Two it would make no additional revenue as our attendances dont historically increase over above what can already be handled. A good season in League One would increase attendances by around 15%, which would mean additional gate revenue between £100k (worst case) and £400k (best case) - not accounting for what it costs to run it.
I'm not against developing the Bish, I would like it done if only for aesthetic purposes only but it'd be a drain on the finances right now, and I'd rather have a team fighting for success than a mid-table one with a shiny new stand so fans can buy a sausage roll 4 minutes quicker.