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Can Stags finish in the TOP 7 (PLAY-OFFS)

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby daddycool » Thu Dec 29, 2022 9:46 am

A big change in form required just to make the play offs ,
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby part time pete » Thu Dec 29, 2022 9:54 am

stag324 wrote:The frustrating thing for me is that this team is capable of producing a 5 star performance, ie Sheff Wed

Why we perform the way we do is the question? It’s just so frustrating


The difference in performance is how the opponents play.
Sheffield Wed were poor until they bought on the subs.
Generally teams play to their own standard most games, the difference is who they play against.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby BenJwells » Thu Dec 29, 2022 10:21 am

stag324 wrote:The frustrating thing for me is that this team is capable of producing a 5 star performance, ie Sheff Wed

Why we perform the way we do is the question? It’s just so frustrating


We seem to be bad at creating space and drawing teams out. Were crap trying to play football in tight spaces and always give it away and get hit on the counter.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Thu Dec 29, 2022 12:38 pm

Stags gained 26 points in the first 13 games, PPG 2.0, Champions form.

Stags gained 9 points in the last 9 games, PPG 1.0, Relegation form.

It's quite a turnaround in form.

Stags record versus the current top 5 teams is poor, PLD 5, W0, D3, L2, PTS 3 (3 out of 5 were home games)

Stags current home form is a concern, PLD 5, W1, D2, L2, PTS 5 (with the only win being an injury time goal v a bottom 3 team).

This list below is the players number of appearances in the starting 11, when Stags won 11 consecutive home league games last season,

Bishop, Hewitt, McLaughlin, 11
Hawkins, Quinn, 10
Maris, Oates, Stirk, 9
O'Toole, Bowery, 8
Clarke 5
Rawson, 4
Lapslie, Akins, Charsley, 3
Longstaff, Murphy, 2
Law, Johnson, Forrester, 1

The core of players with the most appearances are still here, but so many players are currently out of form.

With Stags struggling at home the atmosphere is also not as good as last season (after the poor start), although attendances are really good.

All that said, if Stags can win 3 consecutive games they should be within touching distance of the top 3.

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby MTFC Man » Thu Dec 29, 2022 2:17 pm

KirkbyStag2 wrote:Stags gained 26 points in the first 13 games, PPG 2.0, Champions form.

Stags gained 9 points in the last 9 games, PPG 1.0, Relegation form.

It's quite a turnaround in form.

Stags record versus the current top 5 teams is poor, PLD 5, W0, D3, L2, PTS 3 (3 out of 5 were home games)

Stags current home form is a concern, PLD 5, W1, D2, L2, PTS 5 (with the only win being an injury time goal v a bottom 3 team).

This list below is the players number of appearances in the starting 11, when Stags won 11 consecutive home league games last season,

Bishop, Hewitt, McLaughlin, 11
Hawkins, Quinn, 10
Maris, Oates, Stirk, 9
O'Toole, Bowery, 8
Clarke 5
Rawson, 4
Lapslie, Akins, Charsley, 3
Longstaff, Murphy, 2
Law, Johnson, Forrester, 1

The core of players with the most appearances are still here, but so many players are currently out of form.

With Stags struggling at home the atmosphere is also not as good as last season (after the poor start), although attendances are really good.

All that said, if Stags can win 3 consecutive games they should be within touching distance of the top 3.

C'Mon you Stags

Just like last season we seem to put the season into 3 chunks where we perform completely differently. Last season we were awful in the first 3rd, Brilliant in the second 3rd and bang average in the final 3rd of the season. So we can’t rule out promotion yet we could find ourselves playing brilliantly suddenly.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Marky Mark » Thu Dec 29, 2022 2:58 pm

Not being ahead at half time in any of our 11 home games so far would be an incredible stat for a team at the bottom of the league, let alone one in the play offs - there's only Wigan (2nd bottom of the Championship) of the 116 clubs in the Top 5 leagues that are the same.

And then to be ahead at half time in 1 game out of all 22. To put that into perspective, every team in the Championship has been leading at half time at least 4 times, every team in League One and the Conference at least 3 times. Only Gillingham, Doncaster and Leeds have fewer than 3, and only Gillingham (the bottom club of the Top 92) have 1. Our first halves are relegation material - we can change the players in the window as much as we want but if we aren't getting started till the 2nd half then it's always going to be an uphill battle. Is this about the team being set up wrong to start with and then having to change it, or is it about being slow starters?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Rob » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:06 pm

What do you think it is Mark? It can't just be a statistical quirk.

I think it's a result of being overly cautious as Clough knows we are weak at the back.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:18 pm

Marky Mark wrote:Not being ahead at half time in any of our 11 home games so far would be an incredible stat for a team at the bottom of the league, let alone one in the play offs - there's only Wigan (2nd bottom of the Championship) of the 116 clubs in the Top 5 leagues that are the same.

And then to be ahead at half time in 1 game out of all 22. To put that into perspective, every team in the Championship has been leading at half time at least 4 times, every team in League One and the Conference at least 3 times. Only Gillingham, Doncaster and Leeds have fewer than 3, and only Gillingham (the bottom club of the Top 92) have 1. Our first halves are relegation material - we can change the players in the window as much as we want but if we aren't getting started till the 2nd half then it's always going to be an uphill battle. Is this about the team being set up wrong to start with and then having to change it, or is it about being slow starters?


The half-time stats are quite bizarre.

Last season we were very much a 1st half team, scoring early and winning in 19 of the 46 games, 41.3%.
Whereas this season winning in 1 of the 22 games, 4.5%.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Marky Mark » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:26 pm

With all of the comprehensive stats available in more depth to other clubs you can be sure that their message going out is to get among us early - we've conceded 6 in the first 10 minutes of games so far, no other team of the Top 5 leagues has conceded more (3 others the same - Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Maidstone if you're interested).

I dont know what it is, maybe NC doesn't have much confidence in the defence so has given the team instructions to contain until we're on top, maybe pre-game workouts are too intense/not intense enough, maybe the tactics are wrong and have to be changed at half time, maybe NC wants a look at the opposition first half and then puts his faith in changing it to win the 2nd half (we're 4th in the 2nd half table in total and at home). I know the Northampton game had different circumstances as it needed to be changed for Harbottle, but we didn't have an attack that was on 2 minutes worth of highlights in the first half, but second half it was changed and was better.

Last season we were ahead at half time in 19 of our 46 games (3rd best in League Two), and 13 of our 23 home games (better than every team in League One and all bar Fulham in the Championship). We couldn't beat the home game figure now if we were ahead in every one of our remaining games. Last season it was 2 at the back (I think, I cant even remember now), now it's 3 so maybe it's a more defensively mentality to start with.

Edit: Sorry KirkbyStag - I was typing the same stat as you'd posted.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Thu Dec 29, 2022 10:30 pm

I'm predicting Stags will need 81 points to finish in the TOP 3.

Current Table
PLD...W...D...L...PTS...PPG
.23...11...5...7....38....1.65

Required for 81 points
PLD...W...D...L...PTS...PPG
.23...14..1...8.....43...1.87
.23...13..4...6.....43...1.87
.23...12..7...4.....43...1.87
.23...11..10..1....43...1.87
.23...10..13..0....43...1.87

Stags current PPG 1.65 would total 76 points over a season.

On course for the PLAY-OFFS.

Bizarrely, at half-time Stags have only been winning in 1 out of the 23 games (Gillingham A).

Stags now need to win 2 consecutive games to be on course for 81 points (PPG 1.76)

Walsall Away
Barrow Home

So, at the halfway stage Stags are just 1 win (in 23) away from being on target for 81 points.

Whilst there's no guarantee 81 points will be enough,
Previous season promotion winning points totals,
2021/22 Bristol Rovers 80.
2020/21 Cambridge Utd 80, Bolton 79.
2019/20 Covid stop play.
2018/19 Bury & MK Dons 79.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:58 pm

I'm predicting Stags will need 81 points to finish in the TOP 3.

Current Table
PLD...W...D...L...PTS...PPG
.24...11...5...8....38....1.58

Required for 81 points
PLD...W...D...L...PTS...PPG
.22...14..1...7.....43...1.95
.22...13..4...5.....43...1.95
.22...12..7...3.....43...1.95
.22...11..10..0....43...1.95

Stags current PPG 1.58 would total 73 points over a season.

On course for the PLAY-OFFS.

Bizarrely, at half-time Stags have only been winning in 1 out of the 24 games (Gillingham A).

Stags record versus teams in the top half of the table is poor,
PLD12, W3, D3, L6, PTS12.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:05 pm

Based solely on 1st half goals, Stags are 3rd bottom.

Based solely on 2nd half goals, Stags are 3rd top.

Bizarre.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby St Hilary Stag » Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:12 pm

CAN STAGS FINISH IN THE TOP 3 ....................... :hysteria: :hysteria: :hysteria:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby oldweststander » Mon Jan 02, 2023 3:28 pm

Highly ulikely I would say.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby BenJwells » Mon Jan 02, 2023 4:06 pm

Eastern Green Stag wrote:CAN STAGS FINISH IN THE TOP 3 ....................... :hysteria: :hysteria: :hysteria:


I'd say if we sorted the defence out then why not. But it's a huge IF

Very even league where anything is possible and we have enough in midfield and just about enough upfront.

It's very hard to comfortably convert chances when your foundation at the back is so weak
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Costastag » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:12 pm

For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Costastag » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:13 pm

For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby HitchcocksShins » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:18 pm

Top 3? I'm currently more concerned we won't even finish in top 10
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby STAGS FOR LIFE » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:18 pm

Costastag wrote:For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no

Costastag wrote:For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no


Have i got double vision :lol:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Costastag » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:24 pm

STAGS FOR LIFE wrote:
Costastag wrote:For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no

Costastag wrote:For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no


Have i got double vision :lol:

No ive got sausage fingers :(
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby STAGS FOR LIFE » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:29 pm

Costastag wrote:
STAGS FOR LIFE wrote:
Costastag wrote:For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no

Costastag wrote:For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no


Have i got double vision :lol:

No ive got sausage fingers :(


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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:34 pm

Stags, after 24 games last season,
Won 11, Drawn 5, Lost 8, PTS 38 GD+2

Stags after 24 games this season,
Won 11, Drawn 5, Lost 8, PTS 38 GD+2
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Costastag » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:34 pm

STAGS FOR LIFE wrote:
Costastag wrote:
STAGS FOR LIFE wrote:
Costastag wrote:For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no

Costastag wrote:For us to finish top three our consistency levels would need to increase dramatically and all the top threes fall off a cliff so no


Have i got double vision :lol:

No ive got sausage fingers :(


Image

At last a sense of humour on here :D
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Sandy Pate Best Stag » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:36 pm

If we get a couple of decent defenders in before mid January and they stay injury free, I actually think we could still make the top three. I’m not saying it would be easy but with our strength in midfield and Hawkins contributing up top, we could do it.

Of course that would mean getting experienced and competent defenders through the door which would be difficult and probably expensive. We have enough utility players to cover injuries and suspensions in other areas of the pitch.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Costastag » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:49 pm

Sandy Pate Best Stag wrote:If we get a couple of decent defenders in before mid January and they stay injury free, I actually think we could still make the top three. I’m not saying it would be easy but with our strength in midfield and Hawkins contributing up top, we could do it.

Of course that would mean getting experienced and competent defenders through the door which would be difficult and probably expensive. We have enough utility players to cover injuries and suspensions in other areas of the pitch.

The most telling part of your post is we have enough utility players , tbh we have too many of them a team of jack of all trades BUT MASTERS OF NONE
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